The Oilers Rig

Shattenkirk and Petry

petry1

A guy could almost make a hobby of defending Jeff Petry.

What caught my Petry eye, again, was a heated argument that unfolded on twitter yesterday. It all started with Ray Ferraro stating in a radio spot that if Kevin Shattenkirk should shake free (due to the Blues’ playoff ousting) the Oilers should come a calling. One commenter on Twitter immediately had this to say…

It is what an Oiler fan would call a bold statement, to say the least.

One problem with Twitter is that it can be difficult to follow conversations that you are not a part of. That’s why I’m going to take the initiative of leading you through the numbers pointing to why Woodguy may not be that far off with his assessment.

That tweet started a barrage of replies that began with this…

I’m sure most of  your eyes are bulging (Shawn) at the audacity(!) of that first statement. But when you start to dig deeper and give it some context, you may just come around to the idea and see that Woodguy made a pretty good point.

(Before I go any further I’ll say that some of the numbers I post from this point forward were tweeted in some form or another by Woodguy. I’ve pulled mine from BTN and Extra Skater. Like I said though, Twitter doesn’t exactly lend itself to easy conversation tracking, hence this post.)

The big gap between Shattenkirk and Petry is powerplay time and powerplay ability. It effects the boxcars in a big way. Here are the numbers.

TOI per game
EV PP Total PP TOI SH Total
Shattenkirk 16.5 3.3 270:41 0.7 20.5
Petry 17.7 0.8 67:23 3.1 21.6
Points and Fancy Stats
EV PP PP PT/60 SH Total
Shattenkirk 17 26 5.8 1 44
Petry 12 2 1.8 0 14
Corsi Rel QoC Cor Rel QoT EV O/D st% Prim. EV Pts Prim. PP Pts
Shattenkirk -0.196 (151th toughest) 0.266 (116th best) 57.4 7 13
Petry 0.824 (50th toughest) 1.481 (37th Best) 47.2 8 nil

 

So there you have it. Shattenkirk is kicking out the jams on the power play.

5.8 P/60 is really, really, good. It is pretty safe to say that, at this point of his career, Jeff Petry is not heading in a trajectory that will lead to achieving that kind of power play success. 5.8 P/60 puts Shattenkirk 4th in the league among defensemen. He should be applauded for it. But after that things get a little dicey in the ‘Shattenkirk is better than Petry’ department. The big thing to look at when comparing two players is how are they being used. Context.

Here are a few highlights from the numbers above…

  • When looking through the relative Corsi lens, Jeff Petry makes his living against players who face the top pairing of a team’s defense. I’m not saying he is a true top pairing D man, but he’s deployed like one.
  • Shattenkirk is a faces the 151st toughest competition. Solidly in a 3rd paring role.
  • Shattenkirk gets a nice cushy zone start and plays on the same team as Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester who eat the tough even strength minutes.
  • Petry? Not so much.
  • Petry is the Oilers’ #1 PK d-man
  • Shattenkirk is a PK afterthought in St. Louis.
  • Shattenkirk gets over 3 minutes per game of 1st unit PP on a top ten PP team.
  • Petry get less than a minute per game of 2nd unit PP on a bottom ten team.

I’m not going to say that Jeff Petry could do Kevin Shattenkirk’s job the same way K.S. does it. He’s a proven PP performer. But if you look at it from the opposite direction what do you see?

Go back a few years and you’ll find that Shattenkirk is a one dimension player. He has never been tasked with even strength responsibility greater than 3rd pairing duties. He is an undersized, offensive defenceman that succeeds at putting up points on the PP. Jeff Petry on the other hand is undoubtedly someone who is trusted by his coaches to do a thankless job. Defend against the best and while not getting any cherry time on the 1st unit PP to pad the boxcars. Petry may not be able to do Shattenkirk’s job but the reverse may be even more true.

courtesy of extraskater.com

Courtesy of extraskater.com


Points are not the greatest judge of an effective defender. Petry doesn’t put up big numbers or smash skulls  and many fans don’t like him because of those reasons. But the numbers complete the story. Petry is a bonafide, tough minutes, NHL D-man. Get him some help, ease his assignment and the rest of you may just see that.

Thanks for reading.

**UPDATE**

In fairness to honesty (and @madi39), the numbers presented about Shattenkirk may be slightly misleading. He was the #3 EV minutes d-man for the Blues this year. Although his Rel QoC is low, Hitchcock clearly trusted him enough to run him out with Barret Jackman (0.034 Rel QoC, 3rd toughest on Blues) 64.1% of the time.

Feel free to share some banter with me on Twitter, @borisnikov, be it hockey or otherwise.

 

8 Comments

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  2. Doug Larsen

    April 30, 2014 at 10:29 am

    i think MacT and a few media guys need to be more realistic in who we’ll actually be able to acquire to be our #1 d-man. i remember hearing one media wag (Gregor perhaps, can’t remember?) saying that unless the Oilers acquire a true #1 d-man this off season, it would be a failure. not sure i agree with that! i think we can most definitely improve our “D” by trading/signing better d-men until we can actually get our hands on a true #1, whether Nurse becomes that, or we can sign/trade for a #1 in the future.

  3. Doug Larsen

    April 30, 2014 at 9:46 am

    i’d love to see the Oilers try to pry Shattenkirk out of St. Louis. he’d become our instant #1 d-man….wouldn’t he?

    • Borisnikov

      April 30, 2014 at 9:49 am

      As a PP option, probably. But I don’t know if one could hang the tough minutes on him. He has a history of moderately sheltered minutes and zone starts and has never been relied upon to kill penalties.

      • Doug Larsen

        April 30, 2014 at 9:52 am

        i wonder if Roman Josi would be a better option if we could pry him out of Nashville?

        • Borisnikov

          April 30, 2014 at 10:00 am

          He’d instantly be the Oilers’ best d-man by a country mile. His ES scoring this year was impressive. Top 25 in NHL (slightly ahead of Weber with more primary points) on a low scoring team, all while playing the 3rd toughest competition in the league(!) at 1.884 Rel QoC Behind the Net

  4. Reid

    April 29, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    It is about freaking time someone saw the good of our favorite whipping boy. Jeff is a GOOD defense asked to be a great defenseman and not quite making it. Lets let him be a good defenseman and lets be thankful he managed as well as he did being over matched.

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